The year 2026 has been tumultuous for the fertilizer industry, and it’s not even close to being over. US tariffs, geopolitical instability, and ongoing wars in the Middle East have all had their impact. In this space, governments globally have made efforts to survive the paradigm shift that we’re seeing when it comes to fertilizer supplies.
It is during times of volatility that governments and trading blocs are responsible for implementing policies that will secure supplies and regulate prices when faced with constricted demand.
In Europe, the EU has had an interesting relationship with the fertilizer industry. Decarbonisation policies such as the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) and Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) have left their mark, but the EU clearly understands the essential and unique nature of fertilizers. Fertilizer costs represent almost 8% of total input costs for EU agriculture, and even more in other sectors.1 With fertilizer prices on the rise (April prices were 71% higher compared with 2024) it is no wonder that on 17 July the European Commission approved the Fertilizer Action Plan: a measure which has allocated €540 million in financial relief to farmers impacted by the Middle East crisis due to increased fertilizer and energy costs.1 Decreasing costs and improving affordability appear to be the name of the game in Europe.
Meanwhile, across the Atlantic, after nearly 18 months of global tariffs the US Administration has temporarily suspended countervailing duties (CVDs) on specific phosphate fertilizer imports. The stated aim of this measure has been to provide immediate relief from the increased price of imported fertilizer. This move is expected to reduce phosphate fertilizer prices by approximately 22% and contributes to a broader strategy to strengthen fertilizer affordability, improve supply chain resilience, and expand domestic production.2 OCP Group has been quick to take advantage of the opportunity, with a shipment of 54 000 t of triple super phosphate arriving from Morocco in mid-August.3
Looking at the situation in India, it would be a disservice not to comment on how extensively the country has been investing in new projects to secure a stable domestic supply of fertilizer. As a nation, India uses more urea (nitrogen) fertilizer than Brazil and the US combined – two other major agricultural producers. The situation in India is unique as since the 1960s, urea has been subsidised to avoid famine and cut dependence on grain imports.4 The present strategy involves ensuring adequate fertilizer availability, stable prices, and timely subsidy payments to manufacturers so supplies remain uninterrupted.4 Recently, the government approved a new programme designed to attract investment to increase India’s annual urea production capacity by 10 million t.4 It is apparent that India is looking internally to secure its domestic production first: key for a market that is largely defined by its agrarian economy.
These are just a few examples of efforts governments are making to invest in their fertilizer supplies. Key themes do emerge, however. Improving affordability and securing domestic supplies are clear priorities for several nations. Time will tell if these efforts bear fruit, yet nonetheless, they chart a course towards building more secure fertilizer supplies that will hopefully be able to survive future supply shocks.
References
- ‘Ensuring availability and affordability of fertilisers’, European Commission, https://agriculture.ec.europa.eu/common-agricultural-policy/agri-food-supply-chain/ensuring-availability-and-affordability-fertilisers_en
- ‘President Trump Takes Action to Lower Fertilizer Costs and Support American Farmers’, U.S. Department of Agriculture, https://www.usda.gov/about-usda/news/press-releases/2026/06/29/president-trump-takes-action-lower-fertilizer-costs-and-support-american-farmers
- ‘OCP North America Announces Arrival of First Moroccan Phosphate Fertilizer Shipment to U.S. Following Temporary CVD Relief’, OCP North America, https://www.ocpna.com/ocp-north-america-announces-arrival-of-first-moroccan-phosphate-fertilizer-shipment-to-us-following-temporary-cvd-relief/
- PARIJA, P., and BAPAT, S., ‘India’s fertilizer squeeze forces rethink of legacy of overuse amid war’, Business Standard, https://www.business-standard.com/industry/agriculture/india-s-fertilizer-squeeze-forces-rethink-of-legacy-of-overuse-amid-war-126081400099_1.html
