The film Project Hail Mary, released in March 2026, forces viewers to confront an existential catastrophe: how would the world function without the energy source of the sun? The bottom line: it wouldn’t. Early in the film, it is revealed that a species of alien called ‘Astrophage’ are quite literally eating the sun, slowly draining its solar energy and with it dooming the entire ecosystem of Earth. Thrust into an agricultural crisis where ‘the planet is going to starve’, Ryan Gosling’s character, Ryland Grace, is sent into space in an attempt to stop the dimming sun and save humanity.
Though set in a fictional reality, the central scientific premise of energy scarcity and damaged supply chains is not too far away from this current climate.
The fertilizer industry continues to navigate a turbulent path, fraught with geopolitical tensions and economic strains, and with no Gosling-esque protagonist to rescue it, market players must chart their own course of action. As discussed in the editor’s comment for the April issue of World Fertilizer, the conflict in the Middle East has had a detrimental effect on global energy markets, with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz blocking a central corridor for fertilizer exports. Due to its heavy reliance on natural gas as a feedstock, roughly 20% of which travels through the Persian Gulf,1 the market has suffered a particularly astronomical hit. Still dealing with the rippling effects of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) restrictions, farmers are now facing a double blow, with fertilizer prices soaring by 80% since the beginning of the war.2
So what is written in the stars for the future of fertilizer?
At the time of writing, there is still no clear sign as to when the strait may reopen and industries, such as phosphates, are facing the reality that this crisis is now a semi-permanent feature of the global trade landscape, and not just a shock.3
Approximately 13% of monoammonium phosphate (MAP) and 26% of diammonium phosphate (DAP) pass through the Strait of Hormuz,1 and with countries such as China maintaining severe export restrictions, the market has become increasingly constrained. As a result, there is now a heavier reliance on Moroccan phosphate supply, and market players may need to assess new strategies rather than new routes. One potential adaptation involves altering the product mix itself from MAP and DAP, towards triple superphosphate (TSP) and single superphosphate, to stretch phosphorus availability further.3 Meanwhile, countries that can afford it may simply have to absorb higher prices, while more price-sensitive regions face significant demand destruction.
But unlike the fateful trajectory of Project Hail Mary, the sun has not yet set on the fields of fertilizer. The European Commission is actively working to relieve tension on farmers by providing temporary state aid support and allowing member states to subsidise up to 70% of the extra cost.4 A more comprehensive action plan was released on 19 May to provide both long-term and short-term measures, triggering traders and exporters to consult a tangible path forward, shifting away from the ripples of uncertainty caused by the first missile strike.
References
- https://www.ifpri.org/blog/the-iran-wars-impacts-on-global-fertilizer-markets-and-food-production/
- https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cpwp50v4ye7o
- https://www.worldfertilizer.com/phosphates/05052026/icis-reports-on-newest-fertilizer-market-shifts/
- https://www.worldfertilizer.com/phosphates/07052026/food-security-in-focus-as-fertilizer-costs-surge/
